Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions

Scoring-Rule Procedures for Eliciting Subjective Probability and Utility Functions

This chapter considers a situation in which the elicitor wants to discover the precise form of a function which characterizes a subject’s preferences or probabilistic beliefs. All of the "scoring-rule" elicitation procedures developed have a common structure: the subject’s expected utility depends on a function reported by the subject, and the elicitor uses the reported function to calculate th...

Efficiently Encoding and Modeling Subjective Probability Distributions for Quantitative Variables

Expert forecasts of quantitative variables in the form of continuous subjective probability distributions are more useful to decision makers than are point estimates or confidence intervals. We present 2 experiments using participants recruited via the Internet aimed at (a) developing methods for estimating and modeling continuous subjective distributions from small numbers of judgments, and (b...

A Comparison of Aggregation Methods of Subjective Probability Distributions By

Subjective Perception Scoring

Experiences of users determine their actions and therefore have great influence on the business result of service providers. Thus, it is highly important to know and control these experiences. Decisions and actions are most effective if they are based on individual users and their detailed experience history. Currently available methods for measuring user experience fail in providing sufficient...

Subjective Probability ∗

We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wile...